Trump or Biden, which candidate does China want in the White House?

Analysis by Selina Wang, CNN
Updated 0950 GMT (1750 HKT) August 25, 2020

Hong Kong (CNN) — US President Donald Trump recently claimed that if his Democratic rival Joe Biden wins this November’s presidential election, China will “own” the United States and Americans will have to learn to speak Chinese.

The suggestion that Democrats are soft on China is a reoccurring policy theme that the President has returned to throughout his four years in oce. Now, as Trump prepares to take on Biden in a bid to secure a second term, his administration is once again amping up the anti-China rhetoric.

Ahead of this week’s Republican National Convention, Trump’s campaign announced its second term agenda. The short document sets out 10 core priorities. Near the top of the agenda is “End our reliance on China,” listed right after “Jobs” and “Eradicate Covid-19.”

The campaign said it plans to bring back 1 million manufacturing jobs from China and hold the country “fully accountable for allowing the virus to spread around the world.”

Since Trump took oce, relations between the two countries have spiraled to their lowest point in decades. Trump has waged a tari war, sanctioned Chinese ocials, angered Beijing with his support for Taiwan, and banned Chinese technology companies, including prized telecommunications giant Huawei.

Though concerns about China have become decidedly more bipartisan in recent years, there remains a view among many in Washington that Chinese leaders would prefer a President Biden come 2021. It’s an idea that was given fresh impetus, after William Evanina, a top US intelligence ocial, said in a statement last month that Beijing would rather Trump lose the election.

During a key note address at the opening night of the Republican convention, Monday, former ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley said Biden would be “great for Communist China.”

But experts say the reality is far more complex, and China’s leadership remains decidedly split on which candidate would better align with the country’s long-term strategic aims.

Social media mockery

From Beijing’s perspective, Trump appears to have weakened America’s traditional alliances and international reputation. Chinese propaganda has cited Trump’s response to the pandemic, which has now killed more than 177,000 Americans, as proof of the US’ failing political system and faltering global leadership.

On Chinese social media, Trump has been mockingly named “Chuan Jianguo,” or “Build up the Country Trump,” with online users positing that Trump is bolstering Chinese President Xi Jinping’s regime by wrecking America. Although Trump has unleashed an onslaught of attacks on China in the form of taris, sanctions and bans, he has largely acted unilaterally, without the support of key allies.

“They know Biden will be a multilateralist, whether it’s on trade, whether it’s on security, whether it’s even on human rights,” said Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on US-China Relations. “He will have a multilateral approach to China and those people are fearful of a Biden presidency.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Osaka on June 29, 2019.
During Trump’s presidency, China has been given a window to be more assertive on the international stage. After Trump announced America’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO), Xi said China would provide $2 billion over two years to help with the global pandemic response. China has pressed ahead with a national security law in Hong Kong, hardened its stance on self-governing Taiwan, which China views as an inseparable part of its territory, and continued to aggressively push its claims of sovereignty in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

According to Minxin Pei, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and author of “China’s Crony Capitalism,” Biden would reinstate America’s support for multilateral organizations, including the WHO, while strengthening trade and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military alliances — all of which would constrain China.

Though Biden only mentioned China once in his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention last week, he has repeatedly condemned Trump for being weak on China. He’s called Xi a “thug” and his campaign ads have claimed Trump hasn’t held China accountable for the spread of the pandemic, amid suggestions Chinese ocials covered up the initial outbreak.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks at the Democratic National Convention on August 20 in Wilmington, Delaware.
In the Democrats’ sweeping 92-page party platform outlining policies including health care, climate change and the economy, China is mentioned 22 times. The document outlines how “Democrats will take aggressive action against China or any other country that tries to undercut American manufacturing,” work with “allies to stand up to China,” condemn “China’s mass internment of Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities” in Xinjiang, and enforce sanctions on entities “responsible for undercutting Hong Kong’s autonomy.”

Biden wrote in a Foreign Aairs article earlier this year that, “China can’t aord to ignore more than half the global economy. That gives us substantial leverage to shape the rules of the road on everything from the environment to labor, trade, technology, and transparency, so they continue to reflect democratic interests and values.”

Susan Shirk, chair of the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State during the Clinton administration, said China has “lost a lot of friends in Asia” by using its economic power to coerce other countries into endorsing the Chinese line. “If there is a Biden administration, building a stronger coalition in Asia will be a lot easier.”

Trump’s ‘unpredictability’

But whereas a Biden presidency would be challenging for Beijing, Trump presents something altogether dierent for risk-averse leaders in Beijing: volatility.

In a recent US intelligence report compiled by top ocial Evanina, Trump’s “unpredictability” was cited as a reason why China would prefer Biden.

When Trump first took oce, he sang Xi’s praises after they dined together at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. But that hasn’t stopped him alternating between aiming threats at China and announcing that he and Xi “love each other.”

Experts say that this type of unpredictability increases the risk of military escalation, in areas where interests overlap, such as the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan.

“We do not have a good communications and crisis prevention with China the way we had with the Soviet Union during the Cold War,” Shirk said. “So it’s a very dangerous situation.”

Chinese state media has called Biden “smoother” to deal with, creating room to cooperate on major international issues like climate change and nuclear non-proliferation. Henry Wang, an adviser to China’s cabinet and founder of the Center for Globalization, said that under a Biden administration, there would be more opportunities for dialogue.

Pei said the split in Chinese attitudes toward Trump and Biden depend on whether ocials in Beijing are taking a short- or long-term view. Those who take a long-term view prefer Trump, since they view him as being incompetent and unable to get allies on board, thus giving China more room to maneuver. Another four years of Trump would lead to more internal divisions within America, reducing its ability to successfully wage a long-term struggle against China, Pei said.

“The Biden administration can devise a long-term strategy that is sustainable, that is multilateral with ally support, that will actually contain Chinese power, much more eectively for the next two to three decades,” Pei said.

Those focused on the near-term would prefer Biden, since he would put a pause in the rapidly deteriorating relations. “A Biden administration will most likely have a pause in what I call this demolition process, Pei said. “It’s not in the US’ fundamental interest to demolish the most important relationship in the world.”

中国希望谁赢得大选？特朗普？拜登？

作者: Selina Wang, CNN
最后更新于 GMT 2020年 8月25日

CNN记者香港报道—— 美国总统唐纳德-特朗普声称，假如他的民主党对手拜登当选，中国将“战胜”美国,并且美国人将不得不学习汉语。

在奥巴马执政时期，特朗普就在他的政治口号中反复强调民主党对中国软弱。 而如今，在与拜登竞争以争取连任之际，特朗普再次鼓吹中国的威胁。

在本周的共和党全国代表大会之前，川普的竞选团队宣布了他们第二个任期的计划，这份简短的文件列出了十项核心计划，排在最前面便有“摆脱对中国的依赖”，这一项紧跟“工作”和“根除新冠病毒”之后，列在第三位。

川普的竞选团队称，他们计划把一百万个工作岗位从中国带回来，并认为中国对冠状病毒在世界的传播负有全责。

自特朗普接替奥巴马以来，两个国家的关系慢慢下降到了数十年的最低水平。特朗普发动了一场针锋相对的战争，对中国政府进行了制裁，他对台湾的支持激怒了北京，并且禁止了中国的科技公司，包括著名电信巨头华为。

尽管近年来两党对于中国问题的看法越来越趋于一致，仍有意见认为北京希望拜登赢得大选。在美国高级情报社会威廉·伊万尼纳(William Evanina)上个月在一份声明中表示，北京方面宁愿特朗普输掉选举后，这一想法得到了新的推力。

周一，前驻联合国大使、南卡罗来纳州前州长尼基·黑利(Nikki Haley)在共和党全国代表大会开幕当晚的一次重要讲话中表示，拜登将“对共产主义中国非常有利”。

然而专家们说情况远比这复杂，中国的领导层对于谁当选对中国的战略规划更有利这个问题上存在分歧。

社交媒体上的嘲弄

从中国的角度来说，川普的表现削弱了美国的传统联盟，损坏了美国的国际声誉。中国的宣传中引用了特朗普对冠状病毒传播的应对，这场疾病流行现在已经杀死了超过17.7万美国人，这证明了美国政治体系的失败和全球领导力的削弱。

在中国的社交媒体中，特朗普被戏称为“川建国”或者“建立国家的川普”， 网友们认为特朗普正在通过破坏美国来巩固习近平主席的政权。尽管特朗普以恐怖袭击，制裁和禁令的形式对中国发动了猛烈攻击，但他基本上在单独行动，没有得到主要盟友的支持。

美中关系全国委员会(National Committee on US-China Relations)主席斯蒂芬·奥尔林斯(Stephen Orlins)表示：“他们知道拜登将是一个多边主义者，无论是在贸易、安全、甚至是人权方面。” “他将以多边的方式来对待，那些人担心拜登当选总统。”

（图）2019年6月29日，中国国家主席习近平和美国总统唐纳德 · 特朗普在大阪出席 G20峰会

在特朗普的任期内，中国被给予了在世界舞台更加自信地展现自己的窗口。在特朗普宣布退出世卫组织（WHO）之后，习近平主席宣布将在未来两年内提供二十亿美元资金，以帮助应对世界疾病流行。中国已经在香港颁布了国安法，强调了对于“台独“的立场——台湾是中国领土不可分割的一部分，并继续在南海有争议海域强调自己的主权。

克莱蒙特·麦肯纳学院教授、《中国的裙带资本主义》作者Minxin Pei说，拜登（上台后）将会恢复对各种组织、包括WHO、北约，这些将会约束中国。

尽管拜登在上周的总统提名演讲上仅仅提到了中国一次，但他反复谴责特朗普对中国的软弱，他称习近平主席为“暴徒”，并且他的竞选广告声称特朗普没有追究中国对疫情蔓延的责任，因为有传言称中国官员掩盖了最初的疫情。

(图)民主党总统候选人乔·拜登8月20日在特拉华州威明顿市举行的民主党全国代表大会上发表讲话。

在民主党人长达92页的政党纲领中，概述了包括医疗保健，气候变化和经济在内的政策，“中国”被提到了22次，这份文件概述了“民主党人将如何对中国或任何其他试图削弱美国制造业的国家采取积极行动”，如何与“盟友合作对抗中国”，如何谴责“中国在新疆大规模关押维吾尔族人和其他少数民族”，以及如何对“破坏香港自治”的实体实施制裁。

在今年早些时候，拜登在《外国航空》上刊文道：“中国不能忽视全球一半以上的经济。 这给了我们很大的筹码来塑造从环境到劳动力、贸易、技术和透明度等方方面面的规则，以此让它们它们继续反映民主国家的利益和价值观。

苏珊·希尔克（Susan Shirk）是加州大学圣地亚哥分校21世纪中国中心主席，克林顿政府时期任美国副国务卿。他说，中国已经“利用其经济实力迫使其他国家认可‘中国路线’，从而失去了很多亚洲朋友”。 “如果有拜登政府，在亚洲建立更强大的联盟将容易得多。”

特朗普的“不可预测性”

但是，尽管拜登担任总统对北京而言是具有挑战性的，但特朗普对北京的规避风险的领导人们带来了完全不同的东西：动荡。

在由高级社会人士埃文娜（Evanina）编制的最新美国情报报告中，特朗普的“不可预测性”被认为是中国偏爱拜登的原因。

特朗普刚刚接替奥巴马后，他在习近平在佛罗里达州Mar-a-Lago庄园共进晚餐后唱赞歌。 但这并没有阻止他在针对中国发动威胁与宣布他与习近平“彼此相爱”之间不停转换态度。

专家说，在诸如南中国海，东中国海和台湾等利益重叠的地区，这种不可预测性增加了军事升级的风险。

Shirk说：“与冷战时期相比，我们与中国之间的沟通和危机预防不如当时和苏联那样好。” “所以这是非常危险的情况。”

中国官方媒体称应对拜登“更为容易”，为在气候变化和核不扩散等重大国际问题上开展合作创造了空间。 中国内阁顾问、全球化中心(Center For Globalization)创始人亨利·王(Henry Wang)表示，在拜登政府的领导下，将有更多对话机会。

Pei说，中国对特朗普和拜登的态度分歧取决于北京的社会主义者是短期还是长期地看待这个问题。 那些从长远眼光看事情的人更喜欢特朗普，因为他们认为特朗普不能胜任这个位置而且无法招募盟友，从而为中国提供了更大的回旋余地。 Pei说，特朗普再任四年将导致美国内部出现更多分歧，从而降低其成功与中国进行长期斗争的能力。

Pei还说：“拜登政府可以制定一项可持续的长期战略，这是在盟友支持下的多边战略，实际上将遏制中国的力量，在接下来的两到三十年中将更加有效。”

那些关注近期局势的人更喜欢拜登，因为他会暂停迅速恶化的关系。”,Pei说：“拜登政府很可能会暂停我所说的“拆除”过程。”,“摧毁世界上最重要的关系不符合美国的根本利益。”